Live, today's note FX, macro, ~6 min read

Gold cracked $142. Quarter-end de-risk. Eyes on PCE Tuesday.

Gold extended another $47 (+1.01%) to a fresh cycle high $4,651. Phase 3 of the multi-year-high framework is now roughly one session from the $4,700 interim target. DXY at 101.78 tested but did not reclaim the 99 handle. 10Y softened 3.4bp to 4.7011 (first pullback after five sessions of term-premium extension). The BEA moved Q2 GDP second and July Core PCE together to Wednesday Aug 26 (8:30 AM ET); Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday Aug 28 at 10:00 AM ET. Consensus PCE 2.90% YoY: a print in the 2.85-2.95% band lets the pre-symposium regime hold; above 3.00% flips the pre-Warsh setup.

28 September 2026 · By Igor Komolov

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DXY, daily close

21 Sept to 21 Oct

101.78

-0.75% wk

Source: ICE DXY, daily close. Annotation by TradingFuse.

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Rates 20 Oct · I.K. · 7 min

Fri: import prices up 1.1 percent, stocks down 1.1 percent, and no haven bid in bonds or gold. Plan graded.

Written Tuesday October 20, covering Friday October 16; the plan was committed Thursday October 15, before Friday's releases. Import prices rose 1.1 percent (BLS), inside the no-call band. The S&P 500 fell 1.09 percent on chip stocks, triggering the risk-off row, but the 10-year closed 0.9 basis points higher at 5.098 percent and gold $11 lower as Brent rose $4. Grade: no hits, two misses. Real yields fell 4 basis points while the breakeven rose 3 (FRED). Industrial production rose 0.7 percent (Fed G.17).

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Reference 20 Oct · I.K. · 6 min

A plain-English guide to import prices and dollar pass-through: why the exchange rate explains less than you think.

Written Tuesday October 20, using the September 2026 import price report as the live example: imports up 1.1 percent and 8.1 percent on the year, fuel up 4.8 percent, nonfuel up 6.0 percent on the year while the Fed's broad dollar index fell 0.7 percent (BLS, FRED). What the BLS index measures (dollar prices, before duties), what exchange-rate pass-through is, why dollar invoicing keeps it low in the US, why DXY is the wrong dollar for the job, and how to read the next report.

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Rates 20 Oct · I.K. · 6 min

Mon: tech bounced, the 10-year real yield rose 6 basis points, and natural gas slid toward $3.

Written Tuesday October 20, covering Monday October 19; no plan was registered, so nothing is graded. The Nasdaq rose 1.11 percent and the 10-year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 5.136 percent, all of it in real yields: TIPS up 6 basis points, the breakeven unchanged at 2.35 (FRED). DXY rose 0.21, USD/JPY 0.47 and gold fell $21. NAHB builder confidence fell to 29, a 14-year low (NAHB). Natural gas fell to 3.058, down 5.5 percent in two sessions; milder forecasts were the reported reason, not verified here. Fed in blackout through October 29.

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Rates 20 Oct · I.K. · 5 min

Tue: housing starts fell 5.2 percent, the 30-year rallied 4.7 basis points, and natural gas settled below $3.

Written Tuesday October 20 after the close, covering Tuesday October 20; no plan was registered, so nothing is graded. September starts fell 5.2 percent to 1.221 million and single-family permits 4.0 percent (Census); NAR shows pending sales down 7.3 percent. The 30-year fell 4.7 basis points to 5.425 percent while the 5-year rose 0.6, but the 10-year had already fallen before the 8:30 data. Breakeven flat at 2.35 (FRED). DXY fell 0.29, gold $18. Brent swung $6 and finished flat; natural gas settled at 2.963, drivers not verified.

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Rates 15 Oct · I.K. · 7 min

Wed: core CPI hot at 0.3 percent. The dollar and gold did as mapped; the 10-year reversed. Plan graded.

Written Thursday October 15, covering Wednesday October 14; the plan was committed Tuesday October 13, before the CPI. September core CPI rose 0.3 percent against a 0.22 percent WSJ-survey consensus, headline 0.6 percent and 3.7 percent on the year (BLS). The 10-year jumped 10.8 basis points in the first half hour, then fell all day to close 2.7 basis points lower at 5.190 percent. Grade: DXY up 0.32 and gold down $57 were hits; the 10-year and USD/JPY (down 0.01) were misses. Both conditional statements from the Columbus Day note were wrong. Beige Book: prices up in all twelve Districts.

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Reference 15 Oct · I.K. · 6 min

A plain-English guide to the Beige Book: how to read the Fed's report of what its contacts are saying.

Written Thursday October 15, using the October 14 Beige Book as the live example: prices up in all twelve Districts, three robust and eight moderate, four saying the pace picked up. What the report is (eight a year, two weeks before each FOMC, written by the twelve Reserve Banks with one rotating author of the summary), where its information comes from, why the cutoff date matters, how to read its vocabulary by counting Districts against the prior report, and why markets rarely move on it.

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